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Sunday, August 31, 2014

The Astro-Climate Model

It has long been recognized that changes in the
level of solar insolation (on decadal to centennial
time-scales) are far too small to produce the
changes that are observed in the world's mean
temperature. However, there is considerable
anecdotal evidence (e.g. the Little-Ice-Age and
the Maunder Minimum) to suggest that whenever
the level of Sun's magnetic activity decreases,
there is an associated decrease in the world's
mean temperature  

There has been a general agreement that there
must be some supplementary mechanism that
is synchronized with the changes in the level
of solar activity which serves to effectively
"amplify" the small changes caused by the
weak variations in solar insolation. Some of
the proposed mechanisms have included:

a) Svensmark's Cosmic-Ray Cloud Model
b) The effects of variations in UV upon energy
    absorption in the Ozone Layer.
c) Thermal heating of the Stratosphere by the
    solar wind.


But what if there another mechanism that
was responsible for this amplification?

The Astro-Climate Model.

This particular model claims that the "amplification" is
actually caused by the effects of long-term variations 
in the lunar tides upon the Earth’s LOD, atmospheric 
tides, and oceanic upwelling (via tidal dissipation). 
The model further claims that it is the tidally induced 
changes in these parameters that effect the Earth's 
climate through their long-term influence upon the 

According to this model, it is the periodicities in the
planetary gravitational and tidal forces that are 
determining the long-term periodicities that are 
observed in the level of solar activity as well as the 
long-term variations that are seen in the strength 
of the lunar tides (as experienced on the Earth).
This produces a natural synchronization between
the changes in the Earth's climate that are caused 
by the Sun and those that are produced by the Moon.

The model proposes that it is this synchronization
between these two drivers of long-term climate 
change that is the cause of the amplification. 


Monday, June 2, 2014

What is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Trying to Hide?

The Moon's orbit is tilted by approximately five degrees
compared to the Earth-Sun plane. The net affect of this is
that the strength of Lunar-tides at a given latitude on the
Earth's surface vary in strength over a cycle of 18.6 years.
This 18.6 year Draconic cycle is also clearly evident in the
small changes that take place in the rate of rotation of the

The above graph clearly shows that Victoria experienced
increased annual precipitation around 1917, (1936), 1955,
1973-74, 1992, and 2010-11. These years are separated
by ~ 18.6 years and occur at times which correspond to
peaks in the strength of the Draconic tides.

Why is the Australian BOM ignoring this obvious piece
of evidence that connects the annual rainfall in Victoria to
long-term changes in the Lunar Tides?

Will they be ready for the next period of increased
precipitation around 2029?

Please refer to the following papers for a possible
explanation of this phenomenon:

Wilson, I.R.G.Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation 
of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical 
High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60

Wilson, I.R.G., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the 
Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal,
2013, 7, 51-76

Thursday, May 8, 2014

El Nino Events are Caused by Extreme Perigean Spring Tides

The Y-axis of the two graphs below show the number of minutes
that a New or Full Moon occured from Lunar perigee while the
X-axis shows the number of days that the lunar event occurred
after April 1st [There is no April Fool joke here].

The graphs show all of the most extreme Perigean Spring-Tide
events that occurred between 1800 and 1987. The lower a
tidal event appears in these two graphs and the closer a tidal
event is to Perihelion on January 3 rd [i..e. day 278 on the
X-axis] the greater its tidal strength. This means that the
relative strength of the extreme Perigean Spring Tides
becomes strong as you move from the upper-left of these
two graphs to the lower right.

The top figure shows all of the extreme Perigean
Spring-Tidal events that occur either one year prior to,
or in the starting year of, a recognized El Nino event.

The bottom figure shows all of the extreme Perigean
Spring-Tidal events that DO NOT occur either one
year prior to, or in the starting year of, a recognized
El Nino event.

A close comparison of these two figures clearly shows
that the strongest extreme Perigean Spring-Tidal events
are preferentially found either one year prior to, or in the
starting year of, a recognized El-Nino event.

Hence, this data supports the contention that strong
tides produced by extreme Perigean Spring-Tides play
an important role in instigating these influential climate

You might want to read the following related post as

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

DO Events Cause Rapid Warming Events in the Last Glacial Period

Here is my evidence that DO [Dansgaard-Oeschger] events are
associated with rapid warming periods in the glacial record.

The the top figure in the graph below uses the GRIP chronology
from 0 to 45,000 BP.

There is some controversy about the GISP2, GRIP and NGRIP
scaling chronologies for the Greenland ice core. Shown below
are the timing of DO events 0, 2, 8, 11, 12, and 13 using the latest
NGRIP-based Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05)
time scale to the period between 14.9 – 32.45 ka b2k (before
A.D. 2000) [Thanks to Rodger Andrews for pointing this out].


Note that DO events 0, 2, 8, 11, 12, and 13 have been placed
on this new scale.