Tuesday, October 6, 2015
There is a direct connection between the synodic period of Venus and the Earth and the rates of precession of the lunar line-of-nodes and the lunar line-of-apse - factors that are known to influence the levels of tidal stress upon the Earth's atmosphere and oceans
Monday, September 28, 2015
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Many scientists deny that factors external to the Earth can have a significant impact upon the Earth's climate yet there is considerable evidence that this indeed the case. Their instincts tell them that they must always look for internal factors, and internal factors alone, to explain the Earth's climate systems. Most will admit that Moon might have some influence upon the Earth's climate through the dissipation of its tidal forces in the Earth's oceans but beyond that they have little time for thinking outside the box.
It is now emerging that those who reject the idea that factors external to the Earth can have a significant influence upon the Earth's climate are increasingly at odds with the evidence.
One quirky way to show that this is the case is to reverse the argument around. This can be done by asking the question: Is there any evidence to show that the Earth can have a significant influence upon the Moon and nearby planets? If this is indeed the case then would it be so hard to imagine that it might possible for the reverse to happen (in specific cases).
We now have an addition piece of evidence to support the idea that the Earth can have a significant influence upon the Moon. Thomas et al. 2015 (1) report that imaging by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) has revealed the presence of over 3,000 geological faults known as lobate scarps. Indeed, it has emerged that these globally distributed faults are the most common tectonic land form on the moon.
Initially it was thought that the lobate scarp faults were created by the gradual shrinkage of the Moon's crust as it cooled. However, an analysis of the orientations of these small scarps has yielded a very surprising result. It shows that the orientation of the fault lines is being influenced by an unexpected source--gravitational tidal forces from Earth.
Smithsonian senior scientist Thomas Watters of the National Air and Space Museum in Washington
said that: "There is a pattern in the orientations of the thousands of faults and it suggests something else is influencing their formation, something that's also acting on a global scale -- 'massaging' and realigning them."
The other forces acting on the moon come not from its interior, but from Earth. These are tidal forces. When the tidal forces are superimposed on the global contraction, the combined stresses should cause predictable orientations of the fault scarps from region to region. "The agreement between the mapped fault orientations and the fault orientations predicted by the modeled tidal and contractional forces is pretty striking," says Watters.
The fault scarps are very young -- so young that they are likely still actively forming today. The team's modeling shows that the peak stresses are reached when the moon is farthest from Earth in its orbit (at apogee). If the faults are still active, the occurrence of shallow moonquakes related to slip events on the faults may be most frequent when the moon is at apogee. This hypothesis can be tested with a long-lived lunar seismic network.
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. "Earth's pull is 'massaging' our moon." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 15 September 2015.
The question now becomes, why is it so hard for scientists to admit that factors external to the Earth could have a significant impact upon the Earth's climate.
- Thomas R. Watters, Mark S. Robinson, Geoffrey C. Collins, Maria E. Banks, Katie Daud, Nathan R. Williams, Michelle M. Selvans. Global thrust faulting on the Moon and the influence of tidal stresses.Geology, 2015; 43 (10): 851 DOI: 10.1130/G37120.1
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
The six year re-alignment period between the lunar line-of-apse and line-of-nodes is set by the planets.
DT = the lunar Draconic year ________= 0.9490 sidereal yrs = 346.620076 days
DP = lunar nodal precession _________= 18.599 sidereal yrs
AT = the lunar Full Moon Cycle______= 1.1274 sidereal yrs = 411.784430 days
AP= lunar apsidal precession________ = 8.851 sidereal yrs
AD = alignment period of the lunar line-of-apse and the lunar line-of-nodes = 5.9971 sidereal yrs
where 1 -- 1/AT = 1/AP , 1/DT -- 1 = 1/DP* and 1/AD = 1/DP + 1/AP***
TJ = Sidereal orbital period of Jupiter __= 11.8622 sidereal yrs = 4332.75 days
SJS = Synodic period of Jupiter/Saturn _= 19.859 sidereal yrs
SVE = Synodic period of Venus/Earth__= 1.5987 sidereal yrs
It can be shown that the apsidal precession period of the lunar orbit is linked to the synodic periods of Venus/Earth and Jupiter/Saturn by the following relationship:
AP ≈ [SJS×10SVE] / [SJS + 10SVE] = 8.857 yrs
[with an error of 0.006 sidereal yrs = 2.2 days]
and that the lunar nodal precession period is linked to the sidereal orbital period of Jupiter by:
5/4×DT = (1/10)×TJ**
See the following link:
Now this last equation can be rearranged using the relationships (*) and (**) to give:
DP = TJ / [25/2 -- TJ] = 18.599 yrs
Hence, using the relationship (***), we can see that the six year re-alignment period between the lunar line-of-apse and the lunar line-of-nodes is synchronized with the synodic periods of Venus/Earth and Jupiter/Saturn and the orbital period of Jupiter.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Glossary: PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation; LOD - Earth's Length of Day
Back in 2008, I wrote a paper entitled:
Wilson, I.R.G., 2011, Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate? The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3811. which can be freely down loaded at:
One of the results of this paper concerned the long-term changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It predicted that the PDO should return to its positive phase sometime around 2015 - 2017.
A. The difference between the actual LOD and the nominal LOD value of 86400 seconds.
Page 11 - Figure 4
Figure 4: This figure shows the variation of the Earth's length-of-day (LOD) from 1656 to 2005 (Sidorenkov 2005)[blue curve]. The values shown in the graph are the difference between the actual LOD and the nominal LOD value of 86400 seconds, measured in units of 10^(-5) seconds. Superimposed on this graph are 1st and 3rd order polynomial fits to the change in the Earth's LOD.
B. The absolute deviation of the Earth's LOD from a 1st and 3rd order polynomial fit to the long-term changes in the LOD between 1656 and 2005
page 14 - Figure 7a
Figure 7a: Shows the absolute deviation of the Earth's LOD from a 1st and 3rd order polynomial fit to the long-term changes in the LOD (measured in units of 10^(-5) seconds). There are nine significant peaks in the absolute deviation which are centered on the years 1729, 1757, 1792, 1827, 1869, 1906, 1932, 1956 and 1972.
C. A comparison between the peak (absolute) deviations of the LOD from its long-term trend and the years where the phase of the PDO [proxy] reconstruction is most positive.
Page 15 - Figure 8
Figure 8: The upper graph shows the PDO reconstruction of D’Arrigo et al. (2001) between 1707 and
1972. The reconstruction has been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter to eliminate short-term fluctuations. Superimposed on this PDO reconstruction is the instrumental mean annual PDO index (Mantua 2007) which extends the PDO series up to the year 2000. The lower graph shows the absolute deviation of the Earth’s LOD from 1656 to 2005. The data in this figure has also been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter.
A comparison between the upper and lower graph in figure 8 (above) shows that there is a
remarkable agreement between the years of the peak (absolute) deviations of the LOD from its
long-term trend and the years where the phase of the PDO [proxy] reconstruction is most positive. While the correlation is not perfect, it is convincing enough to conclude the PDO index is another good example of a climate system that is directly associated with changes in the Earth's rotation rate.
If you look closely at the peaks in the deviation of Earth's LOD from its long term trend and the peaks in the PDO index shown in figure 8, you will notice that the peaks in deviation of LOD take place 8 - 10 years earlier (on average) than the peaks in the PDO index, suggesting a causal link.
D. The path of the CM of the Solar System about the Sun in a reference frame that is rotating with the planet Jupiter
Page 17 - Figure 9
Figure 9: Shows the Sun in a reference frame that is rotating with the planet Jupiter. The perspective is the one you would see if you were near the Sun’s pole. A unit circle is drawn on the left side of this figure to represent the Sun, using an x and y scales marked in solar radii. The position of the CM of the Solar System is also shown for the years 1780 to 1820 A.D. The path starts in the year 1780, with
each successive year being marked off on the curve, as you move in a clockwise direction. This
shows that the maximum asymmetry in the Sun’s motion occurred roughly around 1790-91.
The path of the CM of the Solar System about the Sun that is shown in figure 9 [above] mirrors the typical motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System. This motion is caused by the combined gravitational influences of Saturn, Neptune, and to a lesser extent Uranus, tugging on the Sun.
The motion of the CM shown in figure 9 repeats itself roughly once every 40 years. The timing and level of asymmetry of Sun’s motion is set, respectively, by when and how close the path approaches the point (0.95, 0.0), just to the left of the Sub-Jupiter point. Hence, we can quantify the magnitude and timing of the Sun’s asymmetric motion by measuring the distance of the CM from the point (0.95, 0.0).
E. The years where the Suns' motion about the CM of the Solar System is most asymmetric.
Page 18 - Figure 10
Figure 10: shows The distance of the centre-of-mass (CM) of the Solar System (in solar radii) from the point (0.95, 0.00) between 1650 and 2000 A.D. The distance scale is inverted so that top of the peaks correspond to the times when the Sun’s motion about the CM is most asymmetric.
An inspection of figure 10 shows that there are times between 1700 and 2000 A.D. where the CM of the Solar System approaches the point (0.095, 0.00) i.e. at the peaks of the blue curve in figure 10 where the Sun's motion about the CM is most asymmetric. These are centred on the years, 1724, 1753, 1791, 1827, 1869, 1901, 1932, and 1970. Remarkably, these are very close to the years in which the Earth’s LOD experienced its maximum deviation from its long-term trend i.e. the years 1729, 1757, 1792, 1827, 1869, 1906, 1932, 1956 and 1972.
This raised the possibility that the times of maximum deviation of the Earth's LOD might be related to the times of maximum asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the CM.
In addition, if both of these indices precede transitions of the PDO into its positive phase by 8 - 10 years, then it could be possible to use the times of maximum asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the CM to predict when the PDO will make its next transition into its positive phase.
F. When will the transition to the next positive phase of the PDO take place?
This figure shows the proxy PDO reconstruction of D’Arrigo et al. (2001) between 1707 and 1972 [blue curve]. The reconstruction has been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter to eliminate short-term fluctuations. Superimposed on this PDO reconstruction is the instrumental mean annual PDO index (Mantua 2007) which extends the PDO series up to the year 2000 [green curve]. Also shown is the proximity of the CM of the Solar System to sub-Jupiter point which measures the asymmetry of the Sun's motion about the CM [orange curve].
Hence, like the long term deviation of the Earth's LOD from its long term trend, the peaks in asymmetry of the Sun's motion about the CM of the Solar System take place roughly 8 - 10 years prior to positive peaks in the PDO index.
Careful inspection of the figure above shows that Sun's motion about the CM peaks in about 2007 which would indicate that the next transition to a positive PDO phase should take place some time around the years 2015 to 2017.
[Note: The above graph shows a prediction made on the assumption that forward shift between the two curves is of the order of the average length of the Hale sunspot cycle = 11 years. It probably a good indicator of the level of uncertainty of the prediction being made].
[Note: I propose that GEAR EFFECT is the underlying reason for the connection between peaks in the asymmetry of the Sun's motion about the Barycentre of the Solar System (SSBM) and the absolute deviation of the Earth rotation rate about it's long-term in crease of ~ 1.7 ms/century. A post describing the GEAR EFFECT can be found here:]